Future
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One use of social change research is
to use the data, research and theory to understand the future. These
are a few sites relating to understanding the future.
Organizations
The
Institute for the Future (IF) at Anne Arundel Community College seeks
to be the local information and training source for information on the
future.
http://www.aacc.edu/future/default.cfm
They have a list of other futures
organizations
http://www.aacc.edu/future/organizations.cfm
some of which
are listed below.
The
Institute for the Future (IFTF) http://www.iftf.org/ is an
independent nonprofit research group. We work with organizations of all
kinds to help them make better, more informed decisions about the
future. (My link checker says this link doesn't work, but it
does.)
The Centre for Future Studies http://www.futurestudies.co.uk/
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. http://www.cifs.dk/
The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer Range
Future. http://www.bu.edu/pardee/
for the study of longer range future. They have some interesting
lectures (as videos).
The RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and
the Future Human Condition http://www.rand.org/international_programs/pardee/futures/
"The RAND Pardee Center pursues ambitious objectives: to improve
our
ability to think about the longer-range future--from 35 to as far as
200 years ahead--and to develop new methods of analyzing potential
long-range, global effects of today's policy options in order to design
sound policies that are sensitive to those effects."
Both of the above were made possible by funding from, well, Frederick
S. Pardee. Strange coincidence, isn't it?
Future of Humanity Institute
http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/
"The Future of Humanity Institute aims to become humanity's best effort
at understanding and evaluating its own long-term prospects."
Hawaii
Research Center for Futures Studies (HRCFS)
http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/ "It serves as a futures
research arm for public agencies, private groups, and individuals who
require assistance in locating future-oriented information or experts."
The Millennium Project of the American Council for the
United Nations
University has this: GLOBAL FUTURES STUDIES & RESEARCH
http://www.acunu.org/
Prospective 2100 http://www.2100.org/
overview of the past century, prospects for the next.
World Future Society http://www.wfs.org/
The World Future Society is an association of people interested in how
social and technological developments are shaping the future. The
Society strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the
future.
People
Roger Caldwell's class page for Anticipating the future http://ag.arizona.edu/futures/
"This course is only
available on-line for individual interaction and not as a formal course
(I retired but continue to maintain the pages). This page includes
links to class materials and activities for your own exploring."
Has some essays, descriptions of future studies, tutorials and also
lists links.
Some Forecasts
United Nations Expert Meeting on World Population in 2300 http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm
report and data from a 2003 meeting. Also includes a report World Population Totals for 1980-2050
The UN also has a population prospects database http://esa.un.org/unpp/
where you can select forecasts for world, regions, etc.
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/proj01/
Probabilistic Projections by 13 world regions, forecast period
2000-2100, 2001 Revision
Ten Trends Reshaping the Global Landscape http://www.worldtrendsresearch.com/major-trends.php
by Van Wishard, World Trends Research
From the Director of National
Intelligence http://www.dni.gov/
Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html
"projects the potential impacts of climate change, population growth,
political re-shuffling and a host of other dynamic trends on the world
of the near-future. The report aims to help leaders identify and
understand the coming challenges and to steer toward positive
solutions."
Mapping the Global Future http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2020_project.html
also from the National Intelligence Council, a continuation of previous
studies, including these:
Global Trends 2010 http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html
Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future With Nongovernment
Experts http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2015.html
discussing trends in conflict, democratization, economics, technology,
other topics.
This council also prepared these reports, available here http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_confreports.html
Mapping the Future of the Middle East
Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future
Research
or essays on Forecasting
Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative,
Long-Term Policy Analysis. Robert J. Lempert, Steven Popper, and Steven
C. Bankes. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1626/index.html
From Rand, "New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers,
transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here
demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis
(LTPA)."
Nico Keilman http://folk.uio.no/keilman/
has some publications about population forecasting.
Barry Hughes'
International Futures http://www.ifs.du.edu/
has papers, reports, a forum, bunch of other stuff.
Revisiting Useful Approaches to Data-Rich Macroeconomic
Forecasting http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr327.html
May 2008 Number 327, Revised October 2008, Jan J. J. Groen and
George Kapetanios
Principals
of forecasting (more shorter term)
Forecasting Principles http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/welcome.html
"The Forecasting Principles site seeks to summarize all
useful knowledge about forecasting so that it can be used by
researchers, practitioners, and educators."
Links
future studies & future conflict studies http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/awc-futr.htm
from the Air War College
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last updated and checked 1/23/09
They are doing system upgrades the week of 3/23/09, I'll check again
next week.
The
Institute for the Future (IF) at Anne Arundel Community College seeks
to be the local information and training source for information on the
future.
http://www.aacc.edu/future/default.cfm
They have a list of other futures
organizations
http://www.aacc.edu/future/organizations.cfm some of which
are listed below.