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This chapter may be freely cited, provided proper citation is given.  See bottom for notice.

In this chapter, we first describe world social characteristics and changes in those characteristics .

Specific variables include:
 

Urbanization: Data for 1975 and 1999, from UNDP Development Indicators .

Education: Illiteracy data for 1970, 80, 90, 2000 from Unesco , and percent of population without any schooling, 1960, 1980 and 2000, from Barro and Lee International Data on Educational Attainment .

Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization : Data for 1961 and 1985, from Philip Roeder.  This basically is the number of major ethnic groups in the country.  Data from http://weber.ucsd.edu/~proeder/data.htm

Summary

Urbanization.

    There have been large increases in urbanization.

First, on average, MDCs are much more urbanized than are LDCs.  generally, MDCs are more than twice as urbanized as are LCDs, both in 1975 and in 1999.

Second, urbanization increased . From 1975 to 1999, urbanization increased among LDCs, on average, by almost 13 percentage points, while urbanization increased among MDCs, on average, by less than 6 percentage points.

Finally, urbanization varies widely .
 

    There has been large decreases in illiteracy.

Illiteracy and percent of population without any schooling decreased in the past several decades .  For example, percent of population without any school decreased from 36% in 1960 to 25% in 2000.

Among developing countries, illiteracy and percent without school in 2000 were about half of what they had been in 1970.  Among developed countries, illiteracy rates decreased from 6% to 1 percent, and percent without school decreased from 5% to 2%.

Illiteracy rates were about 10 times larger in less developed countries than they were in more developed countries in 1970, and about 20 times larger in 2000.  As shown, illiteracy decreased greatly in LDCs, but was virtually eliminated in MDCs.  Percent without any school showed similar patterns.

Percent of population with no school varied greatly among LDCs in 2000, from less than 10% to over 65 percent.  Variation among MDCs was much less, varying from less than 2% to 17%.

Ethnolinguistic fractionalization has not changed very much over time.

In 1961, 30% of LDCs were highly diverse, as compared to only 3.6% of MDC countries.  The number of LDCs that were highly diverse in 1985 remained unchanged. The number of MDCs that were highly diverse in 1985 increased slightly, up to 7%.

As with other variables, Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization varied greatly among LDCs, from less than .2 to more than .8 both in 1961 and 1985.  ELF varied slightly less among MDCs, from less than .1 to .8 in both 1961 and 1985.

Trends

I Urbanization

Table 3.1 shows urbanization in 1975 and 1999.

There are several main patterns to be seen.

First, on average, MDCs are much more urbanized than are LDCs.  In 1975, MDCs were more than twice as urbanized as were LCDs, and in 1999, MDCs were almost twice as urbanized as were LDCs.

Second, urbanization increased , although much more for LDCs than for MDCs.  Urbanization increased in LDCs, on average, by almost 13 percentage points, while urbanization increased in MDCs, on average, by less than 6 percentage points.

Another pattern, not shown in the table above, is that urbanization varies widely .

                                                                    Data: UNDP's data on urbanization and population.

 
Among LDCs, for 1975, 10 countries had urbanization rates below 10%.  These countries included Burundi, Bhutan, Rwanda, Nepal, Burkina Faso, Malawi, Uganda, Mozambique, Ethiopia and Bangladesh.  Only 3 of these, Burundi, Bhutan, Rwanda, still had urbanization rates below 10% in 1999.

Another 27 LDC countries had urbanization rates less than 20% in 1975.

Seven LDCs , in 1975, had urbanization rates above 80%, including Argentina, Uruguay, Qatar, Kuwait, Israel, Hong Kong and Singapore.  All of these countries had urbanization rates above 89% in 1999, and 11 others had urbanization rates above 80%.

II Literacy

Tables 3.2 and 3.3 below show illiteracy rates from 1970 to 2000, and percent of population without any school, 1960 to 2000.

* The 1960 data did not include China, Benin, Congo (Brazzaville), Egypt, Gambia, and Rwanda.  Excluding China from the 1980 and 2000 analysis made substantial difference in LDC totals, while excluding the other 6 countries had only minor impact.  Thus, the table above uses the 74 LDCs with 1960, 1980 and 2000 data, and also shows China data for 1980 and 2000.  In addition, the 1960 data did include Yugoslavia, while the 1980 and 2000 data did not.
 

Overall, illiteracy and percent of population without any schooling decreased in the past several decades .  For example, world illiteracy rate decreased from 37% in 1970 to 20% in 2000.  Similarly, percent of population without any school decreased from 36% in 1960 to 25% in 2000.

Among developing countries, illiteracy rates in 2000 (26%) were about half of what they had been in 1970 (52%).  Similarly, percent without school in 2000 (37%) was also close to half of what it had been in 1960 (68%).  Among developed countries, illiteracy rates decreased from 6% to 1%, and percent without school decreased from 5% to 2%.

Illiteracy rates were about 10 times larger in less developed countries than they were in more developed countries in 1970, and about 20 times larger in 2000.  As shown, illiteracy decreased greatly in LDCs, but was virtually eliminated in MDCs.  Percent without any school showed similar patterns.

Illiteracy rates were much higher among women than they were among men, for LDCs and MDCs.

Percent of population with no school varied greatly among LDCs in 2000, from less than 10% (e.g., in Barbados, Costa Rica, Argentina) to over 65 percent (e.g., in Nepal, Sierra Leone, Niger).  Variation among MDCs was much less, varying from less than 2% (e.g., Denmark, Finland, Canada) to 12-17% (e.g., Malta, Portugal).

III Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization (ELF)

Ethnoclinguistic Fractionalization is the ethnic diversity of a country, in terms of number of different ethnic groups.  According to Dr. Roeder, it is the likelihood that two individuals, chosen at random, will be from different ethnic groups.  Thus, the higher the ELF, the more ethnically diverse a country, and the more ethnic groups in the population.

Table 3.4 shows that, in 1961, 30% of LDCs were highly diverse, as compared to only 3.6% of MDC countries.  In contrast, almost half of MDCs had very low ethnic diversity, that is, had few main ethnic groups.  The number of LDCs that were highly diverse in 1985 remained unchanged. The number of MDCs that were highly diverse in 1985 increased slightly, up to 7%.

As with other variables, Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization varied greatly among LDCs, from less than .2 (e.g., Paraguay, China, Haiti) to more than .8 (e.g., Uganda, Tanzania, Liberia), both in 1961 and 1985.  ELF varied slightly less among MDCs, from less than .1 (Greece, Japan, Portugal) to .5-.8 (e.g., USA, Canada, Belgium) in both 1961 and 1985.

Tables to be added:
 

Social progress

Country Rankings and Percent Change in Weighted Index of Social Progress (WISP)Scores, 1970, 1980, 1990, 1995
http://caster.ssw.upenn.edu/~restes/praxis/Tab44b.htm
from The World Social Situation, Richard J. Estes, Ph.D.
http://caster.ssw.upenn.edu/~restes/praxis/world3.html

Human development index trends, 1975 through 1999.
1975 at http://www.undp.org/hdr2001/indicator/indic_19_1_1.html
through
1999 at http://www.undp.org/hdr2001/indicator/indic_24_1_1.html
 
 

Crime

Total recorded crime per 100,000 population, 1980 to 1997
http://www.odccp.org/crime_cicp_surveys.html
This only has complete data for 21 countries, and nearly complete for several more, but is interesting anyway.
We will also include the sixth survey, http://www.odccp.org/crime_cicp_survey_sixth.html
mainly to correlate some crime and criminal justice system data with other variables.  This data set has
data for 65 countries.
 

Other infrastructure measures.

military expenditure as pct of gdp, 1990, 1999
http://www.undp.org/hdr2001/indicator/indic_142_1_1.html
http://www.undp.org/hdr2001/indicator/indic_143_1_1.html
 

Food Security

One main point about food security is there has been, overall, an increase in the daily per capita supply of calories and protein.  The improvements have been greatest among medium human development countries and all developing countries.  There was, however, very little improvement, and in fact some worsening conditions among the least developed countries.
 

IV  Appendix

Data

Urbanization data is from United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report 2001, http://www.undp.org/hdr2001/indicator/index.html     .  We used 4 tables: 2 that showed percent and number urban by country, and 2 that showed total population, so we could calculate world, LDC and MDC urbanization rates.  We used US Census Bureau's categorization of less developed and more developed countries.

Literacy data is from the Unesco Institute for Statistics, http://www.uis.unesco.org/en/stats/stats0.htm     for 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000. According to the Unesco Institute for Statistics, "a person is literate who can, with understanding, both read and write a short simple statement on his everyday life."  (Facts and Figures 2000, page 23.  Report available at      ).  Literacy data was obtained by sending surveys to officials from 200 countries (source...)

Percent of population with no schooling is from Barro and Lee's, International Data on Educational Attainment, 1960 to 2000. http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ciddata/ciddata.html     (near the bottom)

Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization is from: Philip G. Roeder.  2001.   "Ethnolinguistic Fractionalization (ELF) Indices, 1961 and 1985." February 16.      http://weber.ucsd.edu/~proeder/data.htm      Retrieved 12 September 2002.  Dr. Roeder (personal communication) defines ELF as "the probability that two individuals chosen at random from the population (country) will be from different ethnic groups."  Further, "It increases as the number of groups increases and their proportionate sizes decrease.  So a country with many ethnic groups, each of which has about the same number of members, would have the highest ELF. As one ethnic group comes to occupy a larger share of the population, the ELF declines."

The ELF table used in this report was constructed showing the number of countries that had ELFs at varying levels, rather than summing within LDCs and MDCs.  That is, we didn't calculate total ELF for the group of LDCs, and total ELF for the group of MDCs.  Rather, within all LDCs, how many countries had ELF greater than (or less than) a particular value. With ELF, it is difficult to 'average' or sum across countries.  For example, a group of neighboring countries might all have many ethnic groups within each of them,  but the total number of ethnic groups in this group of countries may not be the sum of the number of ethnic groups in each country,because of overlap among ethnic groups.  Suppose countries A, B and C each had 10 ethnic groups. If all ethnic groups are different from all the others, then the total number of ethnic groups in this group of countries is 30.  On the other hand, if the 10 ethnic groups in country A are the same as the 10 in countries B and C, then the total number of ethnic groups in this group of countries is 10.  Because of this overlap issue, we used number of countries with ELF at varying levels.
 
 
 

Prepared by gene shackman, ya-lin liu and wang xun.
First Copyright June 2002.  May be used provided proper citation is given.
Cite as
Shackman, Gene, Xun Wang and Ya-Lin Liu. 2002. Brief review of world socio-demographic trends. In Social, Political and Economic Change.   Available at http://gsociology.icaap.org/report/

These tables are being prepared using   lotus 123     Star Office, the Sun Microsystems office package.  StarOffice isn't offered by Sun anymore, but we got a copy from Twocows. We also used OpenOffice , the successor to OpenStat.

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last updated 8/18/02