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First Copyright October 2011, renewed August 2012.  May be used provided proper citation is given.  See note at bottom.

This is the second in a set of reports about global demographic trends. In this and the following reports, we describe demographic characteristics which may help to explain global population trends, that is, changes in the number of people and where they live.  This set of reports is part of a larger project describing basic world social, political and economic trends, in ways that can be easily understood by anyone, and that can help to understand the world today.

This report focuses on net population change through births, deaths and migration.

Summary

The major points of trends in births, deaths, migration and net population change are shown in the two summary tables below

Briefly, population is still increasing in all regions. There are several contributors to population increase.

First, net natural change (births minus deaths) shows an increase in population in most regions, because there are still more births than deaths. Europe is the exception in that there are more deaths than births in the last decade, so the net natural change shows a decline in population.

However, migration into Europe in 2005-2010 is larger than is the decline in net natural change, so population in Europe is still increasing. Migration in Asia and Africa is a small percent of net natural change and so has little effect on total population change. Migration in Latin America and the Caribbean does have a moderate effect, slowing population growth. Population growth in Northern America is substantially increased by net in-migration. 

Second, net population change is highest in Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. The higher net population change in these areas corresponds to their higher population growth rates, and so their increasing percentage of the world population (see previous report).

Finally, as shown below, births have been declining in Asia and in Latin America and the Caribbean. So while the population is still growing, it is growing more slowly. On the other hand, births are still increasing in Africa and so net population growth is still increasing. In Europe, in the last 5 year period, deaths are declining and births are increasing, so population growth has been increasing in the past 5 year period. In Northern America, net population change has had very little change recently and so population growth in Northern America has also been very small.

• Most births in the world have been in Asia, then, recently, in Sub-Saharan Africa and next in Latin America and the Caribbean and Europe (chart 1, 2, table 1).
  

• In recent decades, births have been:

• Declining in Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean,

• Increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa by quite a lot

• Increasing slightly in North America and North Africa, and

• Remaining constant in Europe, (especially in Europe - Eastern Europe) but increasing slightly in the most recent period. 

• Declining in Eastern Europe, except increasing in the most recent 5 year period.

• The number of deaths has been:

• Increasing in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean,Sub-Saharan Africa, North America and Eastern Europe.

• Remaining fairly constant in Europe excluding Eastern Europe.
  

• In most regions, there have been more births than deaths and so most regions gained population.

• In Europe, there have been more deaths than births in the last several decades, so Europe, as a whole, has lost population during the last several decades.

• However, the pattern of more deaths than births is limited to Eastern Europe, so Eastern Europe lost population. When Eastern Europe is excluded from Europe, then the rest of Europe gained population.

• Generally, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa all have experienced net out-migration, especially North Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. That is, more people leave then enter. 

• North America and Europe (including Eastern Europe) have had net in-migration.

Generally, net migration is the sum of people leaving and entering the country. The UN says "International migration is the component of population change most difficult to measure and estimate reliably. Thus, the quality and quantity of the data used in the estimation and projection of net migration varies considerably by country." United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs/Population Division. .World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, Volume I. Comprehensive Tables. Page 25.  http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Documentation/publications.htm  

• The net population change shows that:

• The population in most regions is still increasing, because there are still more births than deaths.
  

• Even though Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa all have experienced net out-migration, the net natural increase is still larger.
  

• In addition, in these areas, net migration is still a small percent of net population change, especially in Africa and Asia.
  

• Europe, as a whole, has an growing population because net in-migration is larger than the loss from net natural change.  
  

• Eastern Europe, however, is still losing population. There are more deaths than births, and the net in-migration is not large enough to overcome the net natural change.
  

• North America also has a growing population.
  

• Population growth in some areas has slowed

• In Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, population growth had been highest in the 1980s to the early 1990s, but population growth has since been slower.

• Population growth  in other areas has not slowed, or has increased recently.
  

• Population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has continued to increase over the entire period.

• In North America and Europe (excluding Eastern Europe), population growth has begun to increase in the last few decades.
  

Chart 1

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org 
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Births in Asia, 1950-1955" is average number of births per year from 1950 to 1955.

Chart 2

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org   
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Births in Europe, 1950-1955" is average number of births per year from 1950 to 1955.

Chart 3

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Deaths in Asia, 1950-1955" is average number of deaths per year from 1950 to 1955.

Chart 4
 
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Deaths in Europe, 1950-1955" is average number of deaths per year from 1950 to 1955.

Chart 5
 
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Net Natural Change in Asia, 1950-1955" is average number of births minus deaths per year from 1950 to 1955.

Chart 6
 
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Births in Asia, 1950-1955" is average number of births per year from 1950 to 1955.

Chart 7
 
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Net migration in Asia, 1950-1955" is average net migration per year from 1950 to 1955.

Chart 8
 
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Net population change in Asia, 1950-1955" is average net population change per year from 1950 to 1955.

Chart 9
 
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  
Each 5 year period represents an average per year over that 5 year period. So "Net population change in Europe, 1950-1955" is average net population change per year from 1950 to 1955.