Trends in age distributions

GLOBAL SOCIAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROJECT
WORLD TREND REPORTS

Brief Review of World Demographic Trends

Trends in Age Distributions

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First Copyright February 2012, renewed November 2012. May be used provided proper citation is given. See note at bottom.

This is the fourth in a set of reports about global demographic trends. In this set of reports, we describe global population trends and demographic characteristics which may help to explain those global population trends, that is, changes in the number of people and where they live. This set of reports is part of a larger project describing basic world social, political and economic trends, in ways that can be easily understood by anyone, and that can help to understand the world today.

This report focuses on age and age distributions.

Summary

The major points of trends in age and age distribution are shown in the summary table below

Summary Table: Age Distributions, by Region
	% 0-14		% 60+
	1950	2010	1950	2010
Asia	37%	26%	7%	10%
Latin America and the Caribbean	40%	28%	6%	10%
North Africa	41%	32%	6%	7%
Sub-Saharan Africa	42%	42%	5%	5%
Europe	26%	15%	12%	22%
North America	27%	20%	12%	19%
World	34%	27%	8%	11%

Briefly, the basic findings of this report are: 1) in all regions, the largest group is the adults (15-59 years old), 2) in Asia, Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean, there are more children than there are seniors, while, recently, in Europe there are more seniors than children, and in Northern America there will soon be, 3) in almost all regions, the proportion of the population who are children is declining while the proportion who are seniors is increasing.

Sub-Saharan Africa is an exception. There are almost as many children as there are seniors, and the proportions of the population who are seniors and children have not yet changed.

Changes in age distributions have many implications for society. For example, a larger proportion of younger people means more people who have yet to attain adulthood and who can be expected to have more children which means continued population growth. So, Sub-Saharan Africa, which has the highest proportion of children, also has the highest population growth rates (as seen in previous reports), and can be expected to continue to have the highest population growth rates. Similarly, Europe and North America, which have the lowest proportion of children, also have the lowest population growth rates, which can be expected to continue to be low. Also, since most regions have declining proportions of children, most regions have declining population growth rates and will likely continue to have declining population growth rates.

Detailed Descriptions of Trends in Age and Age Distributions.

All regions

In all regions, the largest group is the 15-59 year old age group (charts 1 to 6, tables 1 to 7)

Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa had higher proportions of children and lower proportions of seniors than do Europe and Northern America (charts 7, 8, table 8)

Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa (charts 1 to 4, tables 1 to 4)

In Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, the second largest group is from children age 0 to 14.

In Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, the number of children still largely outnumbers the number of seniors.

In addition, in Sub-Saharan Africa, the number of children is nearly equal to the number of people age 15 to 59.

In Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern Africa, the rate of growth among children has been slowing since the 1990s while the rate of growth among seniors has been increasing, also since about the 1990s.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, the rate of growth among seniors is also increasing but the rate of growth among children is not yet slowing in any meaningful way.

Europe and Northern America (charts 5 , 6, tables 5, 6)

In Europe, the number of children has been declining since the 1960s/1970s, while the number of seniors has been increasing, at least since the 1950s.

As a result of these longer trends, in Europe, the number of seniors now exceeds the number of children.

In Northern America, the number of child is still increasing, but the number of seniors is increasing faster.

Consequently, in Northern America, the number of seniors will soon exceed the number of children.

Charts and tables

Charts
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Chart 1
s
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Chart 2
population growth in Latin America and
Caribbean, by age
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Chart 3
population growth in Northern Africa,
by age
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Chart 4
population growth in SubSaharan Africa, by age
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Chart 5
population growth in Europe, by age
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Chart 6
population growth in Northern America,
by age
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Chart 7
population growth, age 0-14
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Chart 8
population growth, age 60+
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Tables
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Table 1

Asia, Number of People, by age group
	Age 0-14	Age 60+	Age 15-59	% 0-14	% 60+
1950	512,343,111	93,642,967	797,402,509	37%	7%
1955	594,528,428	97,404,840	857,359,457	38%	6%
1960	681,026,578	104,714,303	921,941,497	40%	6%
1965	768,423,369	113,950,014	1,003,812,350	41%	6%
1970	860,621,069	133,356,404	1,141,015,175	40%	6%
1975	948,358,965	157,175,633	1,287,521,055	40%	7%
1980	995,559,041	182,624,325	1,459,402,152	38%	7%
1985	1,028,314,685	209,977,321	1,668,558,832	35%	7%
1990	1,079,241,422	243,222,301	1,877,017,150	34%	8%
1995	1,130,390,136	281,499,921	2,058,556,045	33%	8%
2000	1,138,849,803	320,725,437	2,259,468,998	31%	9%
2005	1,103,204,443	359,411,377	2,482,376,540	28%	9%
2010	1,079,755,067	414,174,458	2,670,322,772	26%	10%

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Table 2

Latin America and the Caribbean, Number of People, by age group
	Age 0-14	Age 60+	Age 15-59	% 0-14	% 60+
1950	67,285,334	9,391,567	90,691,323	40%	6%
1955	78,963,244	10,816,167	101,927,766	41%	6%
1960	93,133,722	12,888,361	114,036,099	42%	6%
1965	108,718,066	15,293,870	128,593,023	43%	6%
1970	121,594,225	18,037,264	146,745,655	42%	6%
1975	132,950,091	21,056,693	169,066,863	41%	7%
1980	142,656,839	24,151,760	195,517,419	39%	7%
1985	152,469,581	27,871,854	222,051,983	38%	7%
1990	160,129,960	32,552,001	250,349,699	36%	7%
1995	164,416,100	37,596,808	280,634,147	34%	8%
2000	165,955,927	43,558,464	311,914,726	32%	8%
2005	166,330,429	50,240,413	340,466,866	30%	9%
2010	164,473,115	58,728,469	366,880,439	28%	10%

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Table 3

Northern Africa, Number of People, by age group
	Age 0-14	Age 60+	Age 15-59	% 0-14	% 60+
1950	21,784,666	2,979,037	28,218,692	41%	6%
1955	25,237,553	3,236,201	31,087,121	42%	5%
1960	29,726,670	3,545,921	34,220,793	44%	5%
1965	34,179,867	3,985,830	38,176,434	45%	5%
1970	39,372,387	4,853,970	42,716,337	45%	6%
1975	44,235,421	5,302,560	49,257,967	45%	5%
1980	49,193,566	6,296,326	57,581,985	44%	6%
1985	55,707,538	7,158,008	67,089,915	43%	6%
1990	60,794,010	8,410,659	76,983,426	42%	6%
1995	63,357,636	9,866,427	88,170,666	39%	6%
2000	63,589,716	11,445,916	101,130,225	36%	6%
2005	63,870,083	12,968,789	115,177,877	33%	7%
2010	66,125,024	15,471,004	127,863,156	32%	7%

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Table 4

Sub-Saharan Africa, Number of People, by age group
	Age 0-14	Age 60+	Age 15-59	% 0-14	% 60+
1950	77,949,614	9,738,425	98,414,571	42%	5%
1955	87,422,562	10,464,103	108,348,464	42%	5%
1960	99,127,791	11,506,588	120,162,598	43%	5%
1965	113,690,069	12,880,454	134,024,325	44%	5%
1970	130,855,964	14,458,334	150,656,548	44%	5%
1975	151,563,954	16,375,008	170,715,214	45%	5%
1980	175,978,990	18,718,921	195,104,327	45%	5%
1985	203,651,133	21,396,148	223,815,961	45%	5%
1990	233,196,262	24,543,665	257,853,116	45%	5%
1995	262,586,082	28,228,441	298,862,601	45%	5%
2000	293,407,366	32,283,814	343,431,648	44%	5%
2005	326,992,448	37,225,966	393,295,032	43%	5%
2010	363,062,760	43,057,595	450,206,802	42%	5%

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Table 5

Europe, Number of People, by age group
	Age 0-14	Age 60+	Age 15-59	% 0-14	% 60+
1950	143,205,497	66,338,309	337,743,314	26%	12%
1955	147,057,919	71,709,222	356,469,004	26%	12%
1960	161,439,797	79,290,626	363,123,156	27%	13%
1965	168,238,747	90,166,086	375,185,933	27%	14%
1970	166,178,849	101,619,530	388,080,236	25%	15%
1975	160,425,649	111,390,073	404,307,442	24%	16%
1980	153,616,338	111,404,510	427,848,163	22%	16%
1985	150,334,172	119,494,911	436,970,658	21%	17%
1990	147,627,521	131,120,907	441,748,705	20%	18%
1995	140,266,831	138,296,238	448,859,046	19%	19%
2000	127,660,301	147,879,883	451,237,057	18%	20%
2005	115,911,303	150,486,007	464,338,430	16%	21%
2010	113,993,149	161,222,924	462,982,528	15%	22%

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Table 6

Northern America, Number of People, by age group
	Age 0-14	Age 60+	Age 15-59	% 0-14	% 60+
1950	46,696,545	21,288,453	103,629,870	27%	12%
1955	55,573,658	24,189,105	107,197,262	30%	13%
1960	63,488,978	26,617,514	114,211,013	31%	13%
1965	67,014,860	29,009,088	123,199,714	31%	13%
1970	65,950,563	31,977,177	133,356,633	29%	14%
1975	61,249,317	35,310,432	145,800,628	25%	15%
1980	57,528,784	39,441,809	157,482,959	23%	16%
1985	58,065,097	43,525,372	165,488,963	22%	16%
1990	60,749,517	46,755,300	173,656,760	22%	17%
1995	64,318,898	48,459,260	182,970,974	22%	16%
2000	66,264,268	50,984,525	196,040,182	21%	16%
2005	66,606,178	55,416,010	207,208,978	20%	17%
2010	67,926,924	63,967,972	212,633,928	20%	19%

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Table 7

Age Distributions, by Region
	% 0-14		% 60+
	1950	2010	1950	2010
Asia	37%	26%	7%	10%
Latin America and the Caribbean	40%	28%	6%	10%
North Africa	41%	32%	6%	7%
Sub-Saharan Africa	42%	42%	5%	5%
Europe	26%	15%	12%	22%
North America	27%	20%	12%	19%
World	34%	27%	8%	11%

Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org

Appendix 1. Comparisons with reports from other sources.
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World Population Aging: 1950-2050. UN Population Division
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/worldageing19502050/

World Population Aging: Clocks Illustrate Growth in Population Under Age 5 and Over Age 65
Population Reference Bureau
http://www.prb.org/Articles/2011/agingpopulationclocks.aspx

Public Health and Aging: Trends in Aging --- United States and Worldwide
CDC, MMWR February 14, 2003 / 52(06);101-106
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5206a2.htm

Appendix 2. data for the Current Report

World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org
All of the tables and charts in this reports were prepared by Gene Shackman.

All of the data used in this report are from the United Nations http://data.un.org/ They write, "All data and metadata provided on UNdata’s website are available free of charge and may be copied freely, duplicated and further distributed provided that UNdata is cited as the reference." http://data.un.org/Host.aspx?Content=UNdataUse Thus, all charts and tables in our report may be used freely, provided the proper citation is given (Shackman et al, 2012, from data provided by UNData). All text from this report may be used freely provided that the proper citation is given (Shackman et al. 2012).

Prepared by Gene Shackman, Wang Xun and Ya-Lin Liu
Copyright February 2012, renewed November 2012

May be used provided proper citation is given.
Cite as:
Shackman, Gene, Xun Wang and Ya-Lin Liu. 2012. Brief Review of World Demographic Trends - Trends in Age Distributions. The Global Social Change Research Project. Available at
http://gsociology.icaap.org/report/demsumAging.html

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last updated 11/24/2012