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GLOBAL SOCIAL
CHANGE RESEARCH PROJECT
WORLD TREND REPORTS
|
Brief Review of World Demographic Trends
Explaining Population Trends: Fertility
and Infant Mortality Rate
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First Copyright October 2011, copyright updated September
2012. May be used provided proper citation is
given. See note at bottom.
This is the third in a set of reports about global
demographic trends. In this set of reports, we describe global
population trends and demographic characteristics which may help
to explain global population trends, that is, changes in the
number of people and where they live. This set of reports
is part of a larger project describing basic world social,
political and economic trends, in ways that can be easily
understood by anyone, and that can help to understand the world
today.
This report focuses on fertility and infant mortality rates.
Summary
The major points of trends in fertility and infant mortality
rates are shown in the summary table below
Summary Table:
Fertility and Infant Mortality Rates
|
|
Asia
|
Europe
|
Latin America and the
Caribbean
|
Northern
Africa
|
Northern
America
|
Sub-Saharan
Africa
|
World |
Fertility Rates
|
| 1950-1955 |
5.82 |
2.65 |
5.86 |
6.83 |
3.33 |
6.53 |
4.95 |
1995-2000
|
2.65
|
1.42
|
2.73
|
3.55
|
1.93
|
5.73
|
2.79
|
| 2005-2010 |
2.28 |
1.53 |
2.30 |
2.97 |
2.03 |
5.10 |
2.52 |
Infant Mortality
Rates
|
1950-1955
|
145.0
|
72.6
|
127.3
|
184.3
|
31.2
|
177.2
|
133.4
|
2005-2010
|
40.7
|
6.9
|
21.7
|
37.0
|
6.7
|
84.5
|
45.6
|
Briefly, fertility rates in Asia, and Latin America and the
Caribbean have been declining by quite a lot, which explains the
decline in births in those regions. On the other hand, fertility
rates increased recently in North America and Europe, which
explains the increases in births there. Finally, Sub-Saharan
Africa has the highest fertility rate, and consequently the
highest number of births. However, the fertility rates in
Sub-Saharan Africa have been declining. So while the number of
births continue to increase, it is increasing at a slower rate.
Infant mortality rates (IMR) declined in all regions but the rate
of decline varied considerably. IMR was very high in
Sub-Saharan Africa, declined the least, and by 2005-2010 was the
highest of anywhere. IMR was the lowest in Europe and North
America, declined substantially, and was still the lowest in
2005-2010. IMR also declined substantially in Asia, Latin America
and the Caribbean, and North Africa, and, by 2005-2010, were
generally at levels comparable to Europe and North America in the
1950s.
Because IMR was high and didn't decline by much in Sub-Saharan
Africa, the fertility rate didn't contribute as much to population
as it would have if the IMR had been lower. That is, the highest
world population growth is in Sub-Saharan Africa (see the first
report), but if IMR in Sub-Saharan Africa had been lower, the
population growth would have been even higher. Fertility rates are
declining in Sub-Saharan Africa, but so are infant mortality
rates, and so if the IMR declines faster than does the fertility
rate then declining fertility rates will not result in lower
numbers of infants and children.
Detailed Description of Trends in Fertility
and Infant Mortality Rates
Fertility rates (charts 1, 2 and tables 1 and
2)
- In Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and
North Africa, fertility
rates have been declining by quite a lot.
- The sharply declining fertility rates Asia,
and Latin America and the Caribbean
are consistent with decreases in births those regions.
That is, women are having fewer babies.
- In North America and most recently in Europe,
fertility rates
have been increasing slightly.
- The increasing fertility rates in North
America and now Europe, are consistent with the
increases in births in those regions.
- In Sub-Saharan Africa, fertility rates have
been moderately
declining but are still higher than they are in
any other region.
- High but moderate declines in fertility
rates seem fairly consistent with still increasing
number of births, but slow declines in the growth of
births.
- Total fertility rate represents the number of children that
would be born to a woman if she were to live to the end of her
childbearing years and bear children in accordance with
current age-specific fertility rates. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN
Infant mortality rates (IMR) (charts 3 and 4, tables 3 and
4)
- In Sub-Saharan Africa, infant mortality rates
were high in
1950-1955 (177
deaths per 1,000 births) and declined to close to one
half of their previous levels (85 deaths per
1,000 births) by
2005-2010.
- High infant mortality rate means that when
calculating net natural increase (births minus deaths),
the number of births overstates the contribution births
makes to growth, because 18% of the infants born in
1950-1955, and 9% born in 2005-2010, did
not live past infancy.
- In Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and
North Africa, infant mortality rates were high in
1950-1955 (145, 127
and 184 infant deaths per 1,000 births), and by 2005-2010,
declined to about one fifth of their
previous levels (22 and 37 infant deaths per 1,000 births)
for Latin America and
North Africa, and to 30% of it's previous
level for Asia (41 infant deaths per 1,000 births).
- High infant mortality rate early on means
the number of births overstates the contribution of
births to net natural increase.
- In North America and Europe, infant mortality rates were
fairly low in 1950-1955 (31 and 73 deaths per 1,000 births),
and by 2005-2010, decreased to 7 infant deaths per 1,000
births in Northern America, about one fourth of
what it had been, and to less than one tenth of
it's previous level for Europe.
- The low infant mortality rate means that the number of
births fairly well represents the contribution births makes
to population change. That is, you don't have to subtract
out infant deaths.
- In Eastern Europe, IMR started in the
middle range in 1950-1955
(91 infant deaths per 1,000 births) and declined to about one
tenth of it's previous level by 2005-2010
(10 infant deaths per 1,000 births).
- High infant mortality rate early on means the number of
births overstates the contribution of births to net natural
increase.
Regional Comparisons (chart 2 and 4, table 2
and 4)
The charts show changes in fertility and infant mortality rates in
regions compared to world fertility and infant mortality rates.
- Sub-Saharan Africa differs significantly from the rest of
the world.
- Fertility rates are declining in Sub-Saharan
Africa, but not as much as they are in the rest of
the world.
- Infant mortality rates are declining in Sub-Saharan
Africa, but not as much as they are in the rest of
the world.
- Thus, conditions in Sub-Saharan Africa are changing,
but much more slowly than in the rest of the world.
Charts and tables
Charts
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Chart 1
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, UN Data,
http://data.un.org
Chart 2
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, UN Data,
http://data.un.org
Chart 3
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, UN Data,
http://data.un.org
Chart 4
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, UN Data,
http://data.un.org
Tables
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Table 1
Fertility rates by region
(Last 2 Columns - Special Case of Eastern Europe and World)
|
Asia |
Europe |
Latin America and the
Caribbean |
Northern Africa |
Northern America |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Eastern Europe |
World |
| 1950-1955 |
5.82 |
2.65 |
5.86 |
6.83 |
3.33 |
6.53 |
2.82 |
4.95 |
| 1955-1960 |
5.58 |
2.64 |
5.91 |
6.95 |
3.64 |
6.57 |
2.75 |
4.89 |
| 1960-1965 |
5.58 |
2.56 |
5.96 |
6.93 |
3.36 |
6.64 |
2.44 |
4.91 |
| 1965-1970 |
5.61 |
2.35 |
5.53 |
6.80 |
2.55 |
6.65 |
2.12 |
4.85 |
| 1970-1975 |
5.00 |
2.17 |
5.02 |
6.55 |
2.05 |
6.71 |
2.14 |
4.45 |
| 1975-1980 |
4.05 |
1.98 |
4.47 |
6.16 |
1.80 |
6.69 |
2.07 |
3.84 |
| 1980-1985 |
3.69 |
1.89 |
3.93 |
5.71 |
1.79 |
6.58 |
2.09 |
3.59 |
| 1985-1990 |
3.43 |
1.82 |
3.42 |
5.00 |
1.87 |
6.39 |
2.11 |
3.39 |
| 1990-1995 |
2.97 |
1.57 |
3.02 |
4.16 |
1.96 |
6.05 |
1.62 |
3.04 |
| 1995-2000 |
2.65 |
1.42 |
2.73 |
3.55 |
1.93 |
5.73 |
1.29 |
2.79 |
| 2000-2005 |
2.41 |
1.43 |
2.53 |
3.21 |
1.99 |
5.44 |
1.26 |
2.62 |
| 2005-2010 |
2.28 |
1.53 |
2.30 |
2.97 |
2.03 |
5.10 |
1.40 |
2.52 |
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, UN Data,
http://data.un.org
Table 2
Regional fertility compared to world fertility rate
(Last Column - Special Case of Eastern Europe)
|
Asia |
Europe |
Latin America
and the Caribbean |
Northern Africa |
Northern America |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Eastern Europe |
| 1950-1955 |
1.18 |
0.53 |
1.18 |
1.38 |
0.67 |
1.32 |
0.57 |
| 1955-1960 |
1.14 |
0.54 |
1.21 |
1.42 |
0.74 |
1.34 |
0.56 |
| 1960-1965 |
1.14 |
0.52 |
1.21 |
1.41 |
0.68 |
1.35 |
0.50 |
| 1965-1970 |
1.16 |
0.48 |
1.14 |
1.40 |
0.53 |
1.37 |
0.44 |
| 1970-1975 |
1.12 |
0.49 |
1.13 |
1.47 |
0.46 |
1.51 |
0.48 |
| 1975-1980 |
1.05 |
0.52 |
1.16 |
1.60 |
0.47 |
1.74 |
0.54 |
| 1980-1985 |
1.03 |
0.53 |
1.09 |
1.59 |
0.50 |
1.83 |
0.58 |
| 1985-1990 |
1.01 |
0.54 |
1.01 |
1.48 |
0.55 |
1.88 |
0.62 |
| 1990-1995 |
0.98 |
0.52 |
0.99 |
1.37 |
0.64 |
1.99 |
0.53 |
| 1995-2000 |
0.95 |
0.51 |
0.98 |
1.27 |
0.69 |
2.05 |
0.46 |
| 2000-2005 |
0.92 |
0.55 |
0.96 |
1.23 |
0.76 |
2.08 |
0.48 |
| 2005-2010 |
0.91 |
0.61 |
0.91 |
1.18 |
0.81 |
2.02 |
0.56 |
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, UN Data,
http://data.un.org
Table 3
Infant mortality rates by region
(Last 2 Columns - Special Case of Eastern Europe and World)
|
Asia |
Europe |
Latin America and the
Caribbean |
Northern Africa |
Northern America |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Eastern Europe |
World |
| 1950-1955 |
145.0 |
72.6 |
127.3 |
184.3 |
31.2 |
177.2 |
91.3 |
133.4 |
| 1955-1960 |
135.3 |
50.5 |
113.5 |
172.5 |
27.9 |
164.2 |
58.0 |
122.0 |
| 1960-1965 |
127.3 |
37.2 |
101.1 |
158.7 |
25.5 |
152.0 |
39.9 |
114.2 |
| 1965-1970 |
97.1 |
29.8 |
91.2 |
144.7 |
22.6 |
141.9 |
32.5 |
94.0 |
| 1970-1975 |
87.3 |
25.1 |
80.7 |
130.1 |
18.3 |
130.7 |
27.8 |
85.6 |
| 1975-1980 |
81.6 |
21.8 |
69.1 |
111.2 |
14.2 |
121.8 |
26.9 |
79.6 |
| 1980-1985 |
71.8 |
18.0 |
56.9 |
92.4 |
11.4 |
115.9 |
23.3 |
71.3 |
| 1985-1990 |
62.8 |
15.6 |
47.0 |
78.1 |
10.1 |
111.6 |
21.1 |
64.2 |
| 1990-1995 |
57.2 |
12.8 |
38.2 |
65.7 |
8.6 |
108.6 |
19.2 |
60.2 |
| 1995-2000 |
51.9 |
10.4 |
31.8 |
54.1 |
7.3 |
103.8 |
17.5 |
56.3 |
| 2000-2005 |
46.0 |
8.5 |
25.7 |
43.4 |
6.8 |
93.6 |
14.1 |
50.7 |
| 2005-2010 |
40.7 |
6.9 |
21.7 |
37.0 |
6.7 |
84.5 |
10.4 |
45.6 |
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, UN Data,
http://data.un.org
Table 4
Regional infant mortality rates compared to world infant
mortality rate
(Last Column - Special Case of Eastern Europe)
|
Asia |
Europe |
Latin America and the
Caribbean |
Northern Africa |
Northern America |
Sub-Saharan Africa |
Eastern Europe |
| 1950-1955 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
| 1955-1960 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
0.5 |
| 1960-1965 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
| 1965-1970 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
| 1970-1975 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
| 1975-1980 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
| 1980-1985 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.3 |
0.2 |
1.6 |
0.3 |
| 1985-1990 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
| 1990-1995 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
| 1995-2000 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
| 2000-2005 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
1.8 |
0.3 |
| 2005-2010 |
0.9 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
1.9 |
0.2 |
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United
Nations Population Division, UN Data,
http://data.un.org
Appendix 1. Comparisons with reports
from other sources
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A number of other reports also describe data or trends about
demographics, fertility and infant mortality. Some of these
reports include:
Beyond Economic Growth Student Book, III. World Population Growth,
from the World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/english/beyond/global/chapter3.html
also here http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyondco/beg_03.pdf
Population change at regional level. Statistics Explained. European
Commission http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Population_change_at_regional_level
Oestergaard MZ, Inoue M, Yoshida S, Mahanani WR, Gore FM, et al.
(2011) Neonatal Mortality Levels for 193 Countries in 2009 with
Trends since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of Progress, Projections,
and Priorities. PLoS Med 8(8): e1001080.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001080 http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.1001080
Appendix 2. Data
for the current report.
World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations
Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org
All of the tables and charts in this reports were prepared by Gene
Shackman.
All of the data used in this report are from the United Nations http://data.un.org/
They write, "All data and metadata provided on UNdata’s website are
available free of charge and may be copied freely, duplicated and
further distributed provided that UN data is cited as the
reference." http://data.un.org/Host.aspx?Content=UNdataUse
Thus, all charts and tables in our report may be used freely,
provided the proper citation is given (Shackman et al, 2012, from
data provided by UNData). All text from this report may be
used freely provided that the proper citation is given (Shackman et
al. 2012).
Prepared by Gene Shackman, Wang Xun
and Ya-Lin Liu Copyright September 2012
May be used provided proper citation is given.
Cite as
Shackman, Gene, Xun Wang and Ya-Lin Liu. 2012. Brief Review
of World Demographic Trends - Explaining Population Trends:
Fertility and Infant Mortality Rate. The Global Social
Change Research Project. Available
athttp://gsociology.icaap.org/report/demsumexplainPart2.html
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