GLOBAL SOCIAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROJECT
WORLD TREND REPORTS


Brief Review of World Demographic Trends
Explaining Population Trends: 
Fertility and Infant Mortality Rate

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First Copyright October 2011, copyright updated September 2012.  May be used provided proper citation is given.  See note at bottom.

This is the third in a set of reports about global demographic trends. In this set of reports, we describe global population trends and demographic characteristics which may help to explain global population trends, that is, changes in the number of people and where they live.  This set of reports is part of a larger project describing basic world social, political and economic trends, in ways that can be easily understood by anyone, and that can help to understand the world today.

This report focuses on fertility and infant mortality rates.

Summary

The major points of trends in fertility and infant mortality rates are shown in the summary table below


Summary Table: Fertility and Infant Mortality Rates

Asia
Europe
Latin America and the
Caribbean
Northern
Africa
Northern
America
Sub-Saharan Africa
World
Fertility Rates
1950-1955 5.82 2.65 5.86 6.83 3.33 6.53 4.95
1995-2000
2.65
1.42
2.73
3.55
1.93
5.73
2.79
2005-2010 2.28 1.53 2.30 2.97 2.03 5.10 2.52
Infant Mortality Rates
1950-1955
145.0
72.6
127.3
184.3
31.2
177.2
133.4
2005-2010
40.7
6.9
21.7
37.0
6.7
84.5
45.6


Briefly, fertility rates in Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean have been declining by quite a lot, which explains the decline in births in those regions. On the other hand, fertility rates increased recently in North America and Europe, which explains the increases in births there. Finally, Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest fertility rate, and consequently the highest number of births. However, the fertility rates in Sub-Saharan Africa have been declining. So while the number of births continue to increase, it is increasing at a slower rate.

Infant mortality rates (IMR) declined in all regions but the rate of decline varied considerably.  IMR was very high in Sub-Saharan Africa, declined the least, and by 2005-2010 was the highest of anywhere. IMR was the lowest in Europe and North America, declined substantially, and was still the lowest in 2005-2010. IMR also declined substantially in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and North Africa, and, by 2005-2010, were generally at levels comparable to Europe and North America in the 1950s.

Because IMR was high and didn't decline by much in Sub-Saharan Africa, the fertility rate didn't contribute as much to population as it would have if the IMR had been lower. That is, the highest world population growth is in Sub-Saharan Africa (see the first report), but if IMR in Sub-Saharan Africa had been lower, the population growth would have been even higher. Fertility rates are declining in Sub-Saharan Africa, but so are infant mortality rates, and so if the IMR declines faster than does the fertility rate then declining fertility rates will not result in lower numbers of infants and children.



Detailed Description of Trends in Fertility and Infant Mortality Rates

Fertility rates (charts 1, 2 and tables 1 and 2)
Infant mortality rates (IMR) (charts 3 and 4, tables 3 and 4)
Regional Comparisons (chart 2 and 4, table 2 and 4)

The charts show changes in fertility and infant mortality rates in regions compared to world fertility and infant mortality rates.


Charts and tables

Charts
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Chart 1
total fertility rate 
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  


Chart 2
  fertility compared to world
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  


Chart 3
  imr
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  


Chart 4
   imr compared to world
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  


Tables
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Table 1
Fertility rates by region
(Last 2 Columns - Special Case of Eastern Europe and World)

Asia     Europe     Latin America and the Caribbean     Northern Africa     Northern America     Sub-Saharan Africa     Eastern Europe World
1950-1955 5.82 2.65 5.86 6.83 3.33 6.53 2.82 4.95
1955-1960 5.58 2.64 5.91 6.95 3.64 6.57 2.75 4.89
1960-1965 5.58 2.56 5.96 6.93 3.36 6.64 2.44 4.91
1965-1970 5.61 2.35 5.53 6.80 2.55 6.65 2.12 4.85
1970-1975 5.00 2.17 5.02 6.55 2.05 6.71 2.14 4.45
1975-1980 4.05 1.98 4.47 6.16 1.80 6.69 2.07 3.84
1980-1985 3.69 1.89 3.93 5.71 1.79 6.58 2.09 3.59
1985-1990 3.43 1.82 3.42 5.00 1.87 6.39 2.11 3.39
1990-1995 2.97 1.57 3.02 4.16 1.96 6.05 1.62 3.04
1995-2000 2.65 1.42 2.73 3.55 1.93 5.73 1.29 2.79
2000-2005 2.41 1.43 2.53 3.21 1.99 5.44 1.26 2.62
2005-2010 2.28 1.53 2.30 2.97 2.03 5.10 1.40 2.52
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org 


Table 2
Regional fertility compared to world fertility rate
(Last Column - Special Case of Eastern Europe)

Asia     Europe     Latin America
and the Caribbean    
Northern Africa     Northern America     Sub-Saharan Africa     Eastern Europe
1950-1955 1.18 0.53 1.18 1.38 0.67 1.32 0.57
1955-1960 1.14 0.54 1.21 1.42 0.74 1.34 0.56
1960-1965 1.14 0.52 1.21 1.41 0.68 1.35 0.50
1965-1970 1.16 0.48 1.14 1.40 0.53 1.37 0.44
1970-1975 1.12 0.49 1.13 1.47 0.46 1.51 0.48
1975-1980 1.05 0.52 1.16 1.60 0.47 1.74 0.54
1980-1985 1.03 0.53 1.09 1.59 0.50 1.83 0.58
1985-1990 1.01 0.54 1.01 1.48 0.55 1.88 0.62
1990-1995 0.98 0.52 0.99 1.37 0.64 1.99 0.53
1995-2000 0.95 0.51 0.98 1.27 0.69 2.05 0.46
2000-2005 0.92 0.55 0.96 1.23 0.76 2.08 0.48
2005-2010 0.91 0.61 0.91 1.18 0.81 2.02 0.56
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  


Table 3
Infant mortality rates by region
(Last 2 Columns - Special Case of Eastern Europe and World)

Asia     Europe     Latin America and the Caribbean     Northern Africa     Northern America     Sub-Saharan Africa     Eastern Europe World
1950-1955 145.0 72.6 127.3 184.3 31.2 177.2 91.3 133.4
1955-1960 135.3 50.5 113.5 172.5 27.9 164.2 58.0 122.0
1960-1965 127.3 37.2 101.1 158.7 25.5 152.0 39.9 114.2
1965-1970 97.1 29.8 91.2 144.7 22.6 141.9 32.5 94.0
1970-1975 87.3 25.1 80.7 130.1 18.3 130.7 27.8 85.6
1975-1980 81.6 21.8 69.1 111.2 14.2 121.8 26.9 79.6
1980-1985 71.8 18.0 56.9 92.4 11.4 115.9 23.3 71.3
1985-1990 62.8 15.6 47.0 78.1 10.1 111.6 21.1 64.2
1990-1995 57.2 12.8 38.2 65.7 8.6 108.6 19.2 60.2
1995-2000 51.9 10.4 31.8 54.1 7.3 103.8 17.5 56.3
2000-2005 46.0 8.5 25.7 43.4 6.8 93.6 14.1 50.7
2005-2010 40.7 6.9 21.7 37.0 6.7 84.5 10.4 45.6
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  



Table 4
Regional infant mortality rates  compared to world infant mortality rate
(Last Column - Special Case of Eastern Europe)

Asia     Europe     Latin America and the Caribbean     Northern Africa     Northern America     Sub-Saharan Africa     Eastern Europe
1950-1955 1.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 0.2 1.3 0.7
1955-1960 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.3 0.5
1960-1965 1.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.3 0.3
1965-1970 1.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.2 1.5 0.3
1970-1975 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.5 0.2 1.5 0.3
1975-1980 1.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.2 1.5 0.3
1980-1985 1.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 0.2 1.6 0.3
1985-1990 1.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 0.2 1.7 0.3
1990-1995 1.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.8 0.3
1995-2000 0.9 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.8 0.3
2000-2005 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.1 1.8 0.3
2005-2010 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.9 0.2
Source: World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org  




 
Appendix 1.
Comparisons with reports from other sources

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A number of other reports also describe data or trends about demographics, fertility and infant mortality.  Some of these reports include:

Beyond Economic Growth Student Book, III. World Population Growth, from the World Bank   http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/english/beyond/global/chapter3.html   also here  http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyondco/beg_03.pdf  


Population change at regional level. Statistics Explained. European Commission   http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Population_change_at_regional_level  


Oestergaard MZ, Inoue M, Yoshida S, Mahanani WR, Gore FM, et al. (2011) Neonatal Mortality Levels for 193 Countries in 2009 with Trends since 1990: A Systematic Analysis of Progress, Projections, and Priorities. PLoS Med 8(8): e1001080. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001080   http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.1001080  


Appendix 2. Data for the current report.

World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division, UN Data, http://data.un.org   
All of the tables and charts in this reports were prepared by Gene Shackman.

All of the data used in this report are from the United Nations http://data.un.org/   They write, "All data and metadata provided on UNdata’s website are available free of charge and may be copied freely, duplicated and further distributed provided that UN data is cited as the reference." http://data.un.org/Host.aspx?Content=UNdataUse   Thus, all charts and tables in our report may be used freely, provided the proper citation is given (Shackman et al, 2012, from data provided by UNData).  All text from this report may be used freely provided that the proper citation is given (Shackman et al. 2012).



Prepared by Gene Shackman, Wang Xun and Ya-Lin Liu Copyright September 2012
May be used provided proper citation is given.
Cite as
Shackman, Gene, Xun Wang and Ya-Lin Liu. 2012. Brief Review of World Demographic Trends - Explaining Population Trends: Fertility and Infant Mortality Rate. The Global Social Change Research Project. Available athttp://gsociology.icaap.org/report/demsumexplainPart2.html

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last updated 9/12/12
last verified 10/29/2010


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