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First Copyright December 2002.  May be used provided proper citation is given.  See note at bottom.

This report describes very long term patterns of change in population and economic output.  A study of the long term patterns of population and economic growth can provide the context for a better understanding of recent changes in population, economic, political and social change.

Long term patterns are important to study because current patterns of change are an outgrowth of past patterns. For example, according to development theory the current patterns of economic and population growth in Africa and Asia are different than the economic and population growth that had occurred in the past in Western Europe and its offshoots (e.g., North America) simply because the current growth in Africa and Asia is happening in a different context. 

When Western Europe and North America were growing their fastest, they were leaders since there were no other areas at that time that had similar growth patterns. 

On the other hand, since Western Europe and North America already had their rapid growth, Africa and Asia are now experiencing a 'catch up'.  In their growth, Asia and Africa must now compete with other areas that, because of previous growth, are already major contributors to world economic output. In addition, Africa and Asia already have economic or population models to follow (or to avoid), as Western Europe and North America did not.

Thus, the different contexts gives different expectations and explanations of growth, and consequently different approaches to encouraging growth.

Summary
 

First, the majority of world population has been and continues to be in Asia (except Japan). Over time, however, this majority shrank from 65% in 1000 CE (Common Era) to 51% in 1950. At the same time, the percent of world population in Western Europe and its offshoots (including the US) grew from 10% in 1000 CE to 19% in 1950. More recently, population dynamics have been changing. While the population in the Western Offshoots (US and others) has nearly doubled between 1950 and 1998, the population of Asia (except Japan) nearly tripled in that same time. In addition, the population of Africa has more than tripled.

In consequence of the differences in population growth, the percent of world population in Asia has increased slightly, up to 57% in 1998, while the percent of world population in Western Europe and it's offshoots declined to 12% in 1998.

Second, in 1000 CE, economic output per capita was approximately similar across all regions. As a result, percent of world economic output for each region was roughly similar to percent of world population. After 1000 CE, output per capita started to vary by region, increasing most dramatically in Western Europe and in its offshoots. As a consequence, percent of world output from Asia decreased from 67% in 1000 CE to 16% in 1973, while percent of world output from Western Europe and its offshoots increased, at the same time, from 9% to 51%.

Most recently, the rapid output per capita in Asia has resulted in an increase in percent of world output from 16% in 1973 to almost 30% in 1998, and a corresponding decrease in the percent of world output from Western Europe and North America from 51% in 1973 to 46% in 1998.
 
 

Detailed Analysis

World Population trends.
 

• Table 1.4 shows that  the majority of world population has been and continues to be in Asia (except Japan).  Over time, however, this majority shrank from 65% in 1000 CE (Common Era) to 51% in 1950, and has recently been increasing slightly, up to 57% in 1998.

• The percent of world population in Western Europe was about 10-15% up to 1950, then declined to 7% in 1998. The percent in Western Offshoots (mainly USA) increased from less than 1% in 1000 CE to 7% in 1950, and then also declined slightly to 5.5% in 1998.

• The percent of world population in Eastern Europe and in the former USSR also declined recently, from 3.5% and 7.1% in 1950 respectively, to 2% and 5% in 1998, respectively.

• The percent of world population in Africa has been increasing, from 7% in 1950 to 13% in 1998.

• The percent of world population in Latin America has also been increasing, but over a longer time period, from 1.5% in 1600 to nearly 9% in 1998.

World Economic trends. Output per capita

• Table 1.1 shows that output per capita was fairly similar among all regions in 1000 CE.

• After 1000 CE, output per capita started to vary by region, increasing first in Western Europe, then in in Eastern Europe and the former USSR, and in Asia and Japan.

• After 1700, output per capita increased in Western Offshoots.

• In Africa, output per capita did not start to increase until 1913 and later.

• In the most recent time, output per capita is highest in Western Offshoots, next highest in Japan, then in Western Europe, and lowest in Africa.

World Economic trends.  Distribution of output.

• Table 1.5 shows that, as a consequence of similar output per capita, in 1000 CE, percent of world output was roughly similar to percent of world population.

• As output per capita started to vary by region, percent of economic output became less equal to population distribution, and followed, rather output per capita.

• Percent of world output increased for Western Europe to a high of 33% in 1870/1913, and then declined to 20% in 1998.

• Percent of world output from Western Offshoots started to increase starting around 1870, to a high of 30% in 1950, and then declined slightly to 25% in 1998.

• Percent of world output from Asia (except Japan) has continuously declined over time, to a low of 15% in 1950, and has recently increased dramatically to 30% in 1998.

• Percent of world output from the Former USSR and Eastern Europe declined significanly recently, while percent of output from Latin America and Japan increased.

	0	1000	1500	1600	1700	1820	1870	1913	1950	1973	1998
Western Europe	10.7%	9.5%	13.1%	13.3%	13.5%	12.8%	14.8%	14.6%	12.1%	9.2%	6.6%
Eastern Europe	2.1%	2.4%	3.1%	3.0%	3.1%	3.5%	4.1%	4.4%	3.5%	2.8%	2.0%
Former USSR	1.7%	2.6%	3.9%	3.7%	4.4%	5.3%	7.0%	8.7%	7.1%	6.4%	4.9%
Western Offshoots (US+)	0.5%	0.7%	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%	1.1%	3.6%	6.2%	7.0%	6.4%	5.5%
Latin America	2.4%	4.2%	4.0%	1.5%	2.0%	2.0%	3.1%	4.5%	6.6%	7.9%	8.6%
Japan	1.3%	2.8%	3.5%	3.3%	4.5%	3.0%	2.7%	2.9%	3.3%	2.8%	2.1%
Asia (except Japan)	74.2%	65.4%	61.3%	64.8%	62.1%	65.3%	57.5%	51.7%	51.4%	54.7%	57.4%
Africa	7.1%	12.3%	10.5%	9.9%	10.1%	7.1%	7.1%	7.0%	9.0%	9.9%	12.9%

Calculated from table 1.2.
 

Table 1.5, Percent of world economic output.

	0	1000	1500	1600	1700	1820	1870	1913	1950	1973	1998
Western Europe	10.8%	8.7%	17.9%	20.0%	22.5%	23.6%	33.6%	33.5%	26.3%	25.7%	20.6%
Eastern Europe	1.9%	2.2%	2.5%	2.7%	2.9%	3.3%	4.1%	4.5%	3.5%	3.4%	2.0%
Former USSR	1.5%	2.4%	3.4%	3.5%	4.4%	5.4%	7.6%	8.6%	9.6%	9.4%	3.4%
Western Offshoots (US+)	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%	1.9%	10.2%	21.7%	30.6%	25.3%	25.1%
Latin America	2.2%	3.9%	2.9%	1.1%	1.7%	2.0%	2.5%	4.5%	7.9%	8.7%	8.7%
Japan	1.2%	2.7%	3.1%	2.9%	4.1%	3.0%	2.3%	2.7%	3.0%	7.7%	7.7%
Asia (except Japan)	75.2%	67.6%	62.1%	62.8%	57.7%	56.3%	36.0%	21.9%	15.4%	16.4%	29.5%
Africa	6.8%	11.8%	7.4%	6.7%	6.6%	4.5%	3.6%	2.7%	3.6%	3.3%	3.1%

Calculated from table 1.3

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Data

Tables 1.1 and 1.2 are reprinted by permission from:
The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective, by Angus Maddison (OECD, 2001),
Appendix B, tables B10, and B21, retrieved on 6/19/02 from  http://www.theworldeconomy.org/statistics.htm      

These table are estimates prepared by Dr. Maddison, and show historical population and economic output, from 0 to 1998, for the world and for regions.  From these two tables, we derive regional percent in population and economic output.
 

Comparison with other reports

Prepared by gene shackman, wang xun and ya-lin liu
First Copyright December 2002.  May be freely quoted provided proper citation is given.
Cite as
Shackman, Gene, Ya-Lin Liu and Xun Wang. 2002. Context of change in the 21st century.  Available at
http://gsociology.icaap.org/report/longterm.html