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First Copyright October 2003. May be used
provided
proper citation is given. See note at bottom.
This summary is based on the reports and literature review presented
on this web site.
In this summary, we first describe patterns of
change
for the world and contrast less and more developed countries, as a
group.
We then show that change at the individual country level is a very
complex
process. Finally, we describe future research questions.
__________________
World society has changed greatly in the last several
decades. Some main patterns are
described
first.
World population has moved
Population growth has slowed, but has still been
higher
in developing countries. Thus, the percent of world population living
in
the developing countries has grown from 70% in 1960 to 81% in 2001. In
addition, urbanization has increased, so more of the world population
is
living in cities.
Changed material conditions
There have also been large changes in material
conditions.
For example, there has been growth in radio and TV receivers per
capita,
there has been growth in newspaper circulation per capita among the
less
developed countries, and there has been tremendous growth in internet
use
throughout the world.
Improved living conditions
Many changes have been in improved
living conditions. For example infant mortality rates (IMR)
has declined, illiteracy and percent of
population
without any schooling has declined, especially among less developed
countries,
GDP per capita increased and (most likely)
poverty has declined.
Political freedom has also
increased in the last several decades, but this growth has only been
moderate.
Slower improvement among less developed countries
However, improvements did not procede equally. For example, in 1960, infant mortality rate was more than 4.5 times higher in developing countries than it was among industrialized countries. In 2000, IMR in developing countries was about 10 times higher than was IMR in industrialized countries.
Table 1
Summary, Infant Mortality Rate
( ratio of deaths under 1 year to 1,000 births in the
same year.)
Regional summaries |
1960
N = 159 |
2000
N = 187 |
Industrialized countries |
31
|
6
|
Developing countries |
141
|
63
|
Least developed countries |
170
|
102
|
World |
126
|
57
|
Ratio = IMR of developing countries / IMR of industrialized countries |
4.5
|
10.5
|
Ratio = IMR of least developed countries / IMR of industrialized countries |
5.5
|
17
|
That is, infant mortality rate declined in both developing and industrialized countries, but it declined faster in industrialized countries. In addition, unfortunately several countries (e.g., Angola, Botswana, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Zambia) had increases in infant mortality rate.
Also, the illiteracy rate in developing countries changed from about 10 times larger than illiteracy rate in more developed countries in 1970 to about almost 20 times larger in 2000. Again, overall, illiteracy rates declined in both developing and more developed countries, but it declined faster in developed countries.
Similarly, political change
happened
at a much slower pace in less developed countries. While freedom is now
almost universal among developed countries, there has only been
moderate
growth in freedom among less developed countries, and only 32% of
people
in less developed countries live in freedom.
Changing patterns and consequences of conflict
One common trend in conflict has been, in the 1970s to the mid 1990s, an increase in civil wars and refugees, then in the 1990s, a decrease in conflict and refugees. The number of international terrorist attacks generally follows this pattern, except that the decline started in the late 1980s. Unfortunately, casualties from terrorism doesn't seem to follow this trend. There have been fewer terrorist attacks, but not fewer casualties. Casualties seem to have increased in Asia, and in the last several years in the Middle East as well.
Civil wars have generally involved at most 50
countries
in any year, and more generally fewer than 40, out of about 223
countries.
That is, most countries were not involved in conflicts, but a
significant
number were. Similarly, there have generally been 10 to 15 million
refugees
each year during the 1980s to 2000, out of a world population of 5 to 6
billion. Only a small percent were ever refugees, but the numbers who
were
refugees were still significant.
_________________________________________
Table 2
Less Developed Countries with declining conditions
Countries with increased infant mortality rate, 1980 to 2000 |
Countries with largest increase in percent without schooling 1980 to 2000 |
Countries that changed from partly free
to not
free. 1980 to 2000 |
|
Angola |
|
||
Botswana |
|
||
Iraq |
|
||
Kazakhstan |
|
||
Zambia |
|
||
Barbados |
|
||
Israel |
|
||
Jamaica |
|
||
Senegal |
|
||
Sri Lanka |
|
||
Trinidad and Tobago |
|
||
Bhutan |
|
||
Egypt |
|
||
Iran |
|
||
Kenya |
|
||
Maldives |
|
||
Sudan |
|
||
Swaziland |
|
||
Tunisia |
|
||
United Arab Emirates |
|
||
Zimbabwe |
|
_____________________________
The main question is why LDCs. as a group, experienced less improvement in living conditions than did more developed countries. A second question is how to understand why some countries had large improvements in living conditions while other countries had less improvement or even decline. As described above, as a group, LDCs experienced less improvement in living conditions, but some LDCs had large improvement. That is, what makes countries different and how do these differences contribute to their pattern of change.
The long term goal of our project is to understand
these
questions. We first start with the reports of overall
global change, so that:
There is of course a great deal of research on these
questions (e.g., why some countries improve while others do not),
listed
in the theory and research pages of our web site, http://gsociology.icaap.org/reviews.htm
and http://gsociology.icaap.org/research.html
Much of this is described in our review http://gsociology.icaap.org/report/summary2.htm
The next step in our project will include expanding our literature review, focusing on the questions above, that is why there are differences among countries in their development. We will then prepare and post reports from micro and regional studies examining changes in more detail.
We invite anyone interested to
participate.
Prepared by Gene Shackman, Ya-Lin Liu and Wang Xun
First Copyright October 2003. Revised and renewed October
2004. May be used provided proper
citation is given.
Cite as
Shackman, Gene, Ya-Lin Liu and Xun Wang. 2004. How Societies Change
Over Time: Summary. Available at
http://gsociology.icaap.org/report/repsum.html
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